If you've been hearing the words "Super El Niño" lately, there's a good reason. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is strengthening, with better than a 90% chance of a very strong event this fall and winter. Even more striking, forecasters give a 75% chance that the October through December period will see a historic event, stronger than any El Niño on record going back to 1950.
So what does that mean for us here in California?
What the forecast says
Over 50% odds of a wetter than normal winter for coastal California
That's NOAA's outlook for both December to February and January to March. The biggest effects are expected from December 2026 through February 2027, with some changes possibly starting in late fall.
To be fair, a forecast isn't a promise. The last super El Niño, back in 2015-2016, actually turned out drier than expected in Southern California. And if the storm track shifts a couple hundred miles north, SoCal can stay dry even in a setup like this one.
But here's how I see it: if the storms come and you're ready, great. If they don't come and you're ready, you've lost nothing. The supplies keep, and you'll have them for the next power outage, earthquake, or whatever surprise comes our way.
What heavy storms can bring
Strong El Niño winters in California can mean flooding, mudslides, downed trees, power outages that last days, and roads that close without warning. The time to get ready is now, before stores run out and everyone is shopping at once.
The basic emergency kit
You don't need to spend a fortune. Start with the essentials:
Water
The usual rule is one gallon per person per day for at least three days. Cases of bottled water are the easiest start, and a few larger jugs or a water storage container cover cooking and washing.
Bottled water on Amazon Water storage containersA water filter
If tap water becomes unsafe after flooding, a portable filter or filter pitcher is a cheap backup.
See water filtersNon-perishable food
Canned goods, energy bars, peanut butter, and ready-to-eat meals. Don't forget a manual can opener.
Emergency food kits Manual can openerFlashlights and lanterns
LED lanterns are much safer than candles during an outage.
See LED lanterns
A hand-crank or battery weather radio
If the power and cell service go down, this is how you'll hear emergency alerts. Many models also charge your phone.
See weather radiosRain gear and tarps
Ponchos, waterproof boots, and a heavy-duty tarp for quick roof or window fixes.
Ponchos and boots Heavy-duty tarpsSandbags
If you live in a low area or near a creek, get them before the first big storm, not during it.
See sandbagsA waterproof document bag
Keep copies of IDs, insurance papers, and important records in one dry place you can grab and go.
See document bagsOr grab a ready-made kit
If you'd rather not build it piece by piece, a pre-packed 72-hour emergency kit is a solid starting point. You can add water and your personal items on top.
See 72-hour emergency kitsDon't forget your pets
Your pets need a plan too: food, water, medications, a leash or carrier, and their records in one place. My Prepared Pet Binder makes it easy to keep vet info, vaccination records, and emergency contacts organized so you can grab it and go.
Get the Pet Binder on AmazonA few quick to-dos this month
Clear your gutters and storm drains. Check your sump pump if you have one. Trim dead tree branches near the house. Sign up for your county's emergency alerts. And talk with your family about where you'd meet if you had to leave in a hurry.
The bottom line
Nobody knows exactly how this winter will play out. But the forecasts are clear enough that getting a basic kit together now is just common sense. Do it once, check it every year, and you'll sleep better when the rain starts.
Stay safe and stay dry!
Forecast figures from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, September 2026 updates. Forecasts change, so check NOAA and your local National Weather Service office for the latest.
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